Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
