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China has sent its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past remote Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.