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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It often acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

However the current competition is distinctly different. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still